The Process
The world was divided into twelve regions for the purpose of the analyses in this study. These twelve regions were:
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Africa Australasia Caribbean Central America Continental S and SE Asia Europe |
Far East Insular SE Asia Middle East North America Russia South America |
For a list of countries in each region, see World Table 2. For a list of countries excluded, see Appendix 3
For each region there were three spatial datasets: the forests layer (which showed the forests in the region by forest type, each polygon also retaining a country code), the ecological zones layer and the protected areas layer. The preparation of these layers was the biggest and most time-consuming job in the study. When the layers were ready, they were joined so that statistics could be produced from layer combinations. The following queries were then made through Arc Info:
1. Amount of each forest type in region
2. Amount of each forest type protected in region
3. Amount of forest in each country
4. Amount of protected forest in each country
5. Amount of forest in each ecological zone for the region
6. Amount of each forest type in each ecological zone for the region
7. Amount of protected forest in each ecological zone for the region
8. Amount of each forest type protected in each ecological zone for the region
9. Percentage of each ecological zone with forest for the region
10. Percentage of each ecological zone with protected forest for the region
11. Percentage of each forest type protected, by country
12. Percentage of each forest type protected, for the region
13. Amount of each forest type in each country
14. Area of each ecological zone for the region
15. Area of each forest type protected, by country
16. Amount of protected forest in each ecological zone, for the region
17. Percentage of forest in each ecological zone that is protected
18. Percentage of protected forest for each country
The .dbf files that resulted from these queries were transferred over to Microsoft Excel and made into spreadsheets, from which the tables and charts were constructed.
Mismatches between the forest and ecological zones layers for the coastlines and for internal water bodies resulted in the generation of a figure representing forested areas that are outside of the ecological zones coverages. This figure was present in all regions and was termed"excluded forest" for the purposes of this study.
Population data for 1996 and estimates for 2025 were obtained from the United Nations databases, the World Resources Institute, the United States government and IIASA (the DemoGraphics program). Estimates for 2025 take into account immigration, emigration, economic forecasts and cultural factors influencing populations in addition to birth rate and mortality figures. Forest areas were forecast for 2025 for each region by applying the FAO (1995) annual rate of change figures for each region of the world to the total forest area figure produced in the current study. This calculation was carried out using the Microsoft Excel program. The estimate for forest area in 2025 therefore does not take into account any changes in the annual rates of forest change which are bound to take place over the next 30 years.
With more accurate data on forest type in each country (there was very little information on plantation forest, for example, available for this study) it should be possible in the future to predict the amount of forest of each type that there will be in each region given certain policies on forest management and accurate data on the protected areas. This was not possible for the current work.